中圖分類號：X915.2
文獻標識碼：A
DOI： 10.19358/j.issn.2096-5133.2020.02.014
引用格式：李逸佳.社區(qū)入室盜竊風險評估模型研究［J］.信息技術與網(wǎng)絡安全，2020,39（2）：75-80.

Research on risk assessment model of community burglary

Abstract： Risk assessment is of reference to the prevention and controlling of burglary crimes in the community.With the literature and onthespot investigations,and combined with the experiences of community policing,this paper constructs a risk assessment indicators system of burglary in the community, and realizes the quantitative calculation for the burglary risk by using Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process,Delphi,DempsterShafer Evidence Theory and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method.Taking 13 typical communities in a large city as examples,the proposed risk assessment method is validated by real burglary case data.The results show that the construction and operation of community police office has the greatest impact on the risk of burglary,followed by the security of key facilities and the status of residential space and home;The results of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation are basically consistent with the real situation of burglary.The method proposed in this paper is expected to provide a decisionmaking basis for the prevention of burglary in the community.

Key words : risk assessment; indicator system; fuzzy analytic hierarchy process; DS evidence theory; fuzzy comprehensive evaluation